With the presumptive ascension of RFK Jr. to Health and Social Services Secretary bringing along his history of anti-vax activities, along with the collective contrarian views of Jay Bhattacharya (proposed NIH leader), Mehmet Oz (CMS Director), and autism-related-vaccine proponent Dave Weldon to head CDC, it’s time to consider the hard evidence an anti-vax government portends: an infectious disease epidemic of major proportions --- as early as next fall. And it’s not COVID.
When Vaccine Skeptics Sabotage Public Opinion
The earliest organized anti-vaccine effort mobilized following the 2013 measles epidemic targeted Minnesota’s Somali community. That outbreak saw 21 measles cases, which fostered an autism panic and provided fodder for the newly energized anti-vax consortium. Vaccination tanked to 42% from 92% in 2004. In 2017, after the activists got their hooks into the Somali community, measles again struck Minnesota. This time, there were 79 cases.
In 2011, years before the organized anti-vax movement took root, Brooklyn sustained its first measles outbreak – with 58 cases. That outbreak was contained in three months.
By 2016, Kennedy’s Children’s Health Defense, Del Bigtree’s Informed Consent Action Network, and other anti-vax groups had gained traction. Bigtree concentrated his efforts on ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities (even traveling to Israel to host its first Anti-Vaxx extravaganza in 2019). This initiative was augmented by local groups, like PEACH (Parents Educating and Advocating for Public Health), amplifying anti-vax messages through conferences, symposia, and publications. Their efforts were successful, culminating in a subversive, glossy, and engaging 40-page pamphlet called The Vaccine Safety Handbook, replete with outrageous falsehoods. RFK Jr’s group wasn’t as parochial – spreading his anti-vax mantra in non-Jewish Rockland neighborhoods, later focusing on Black communities along with aggressively crusading against legislative exemptions based on religion. In two years, vaccination in target areas, primarily Rockland and Kings (Brooklyn) counties, tanked. (94% of older children went unvaccinated, with a 72% overall vaccination rate).
In 2018-2019, Brooklyn suffered its second major outbreak, reporting 654 cases. It took almost a year (and a court order compelling vaccination) for the outbreak to be quelled.
Similar “before” anti-vax infiltration and explosive “after” statistics were reported in insular communities of London, Jerusalem, and Israel between 2007 and 2019, concomitant with diving vaccination rates that tracked ant-vax propaganda. [1]
In 2019, some three years after the anti-vax industry effectively mobilized, America saw its first major measles epidemic in almost twenty years. More than 1,200 cases were confirmed—the largest number since measles was eradicated in the US in 2015. The epicenter was Rockland and Brooklyn, which spawned two case zeros a day apart. Those two counties (an hour apart by car with community members shuttling between them) produced more than half the American cases. Ultimately, 85% of the remaining American cases were traceable (directly or indirectly) to those venues, not-so-coincidentally the sites of the most virulent and persistent anti-vax activities.
“Measles - the most contagious disease on earth.”
“90% of unvaccinated people exposed to measles will become infected, and a single person with measles will be able to infect nine other people who aren’t immune.”
Not everyone must be vaccinated to protect a community, however. The concept of herd immunity protects a community where the majority are vaccinated, limiting transmission. A disease’s contagion or infectivity determines the number of individuals needing vaccination. For measles, the percentage is roughly 95%; in 2019, US vaccine coverage was reportedly 86%.
Contrary to the defensive views of the vaccine resistant, measles can be very dangerous, resulting in death (which ranges depending on the native health care system from .1% to 30%), pneumonia, and encephalitis, an inflammation of the brain. Perhaps the scariest long-term effect is Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), affecting 1 in 25,000 children (1 in 5,500 children under 1) and is almost always fatal.
“[A]fter a quiet period of several years, symptoms begin to emerge, leading to serious neurological problems. These can include changes in behavior, memory issues, uncontrollable jerking movements called myoclonic jerks, seizures, and eventually, a coma or a vegetative state.”
SSPE, which had been waning, is reemerging in tandem with the increased non-vaccination rates
Pre-school Vaccine Requirements
Pre-school vaccination requirements for measles, mumps, and diphtheria exist in all 50 American states. However, except for five states (California, Connecticut, Maine, New York, and West Virginia), the remainder grant religious exemptions based on religious or philosophical beliefs. Recently, those exemptions have become easier to secure. The old standard required hard evidence showing a strongly held religious or philosophical (personal) belief. But relaxation of these rigorous standards and judicial leniency is gaining traction.
- Mississippi, which once disavowed religious exemptions, has since restored its exemption (Brown v. Stone). In 2019, New Jersey was on the verge of ending religious exemption when busloads of protestors ostensibly organized by Del Bigtree torpedoed the proposed state legislature.
- “On March 3, the Montana House passed HB 715, which would require schools and the Department of Health to accept all requests for religious exemptions to student vaccination requirements, removing the Health Department’s authority to deny false claims.”
- “In Idaho, which had a measles outbreak in the last year, parents only need to sign a statement citing religious "or other reasons." The state had the country's highest kindergarten vaccination exemption rate in the 2022-2023 school year, at 12.1%, per the most recent federal data.
While overall, US parents still support childhood vaccinations, the support is waning. Six states now have vaccination levels lower than the 95% required to support herd immunity – making them easy prey.
Global Spread
The CDC and AMA report that US measles cases happen when:
- Unvaccinated travelers who get measles abroad bring it into the US,
- Cases spread in US communities with pockets of unvaccinated people.
This global transmission doctrine is not limited to measles. While COVID-19 may have originated in Wuhan, the pandemic was fostered via the second epicenter: Italy, and from there to New York City and Europe. Italy furnishing such a large contingent of international transmission sources may seem curious. The avalanche of cases in Lombardy is well-known. Not so well known is that simultaneously, less than an hour away by car, Milan was hosting Men’s Fashion Week (January 11-14, 2019), attended by thousands of international travelers soon to return to their home turf, carrying COVID with them.
The cases that sparked the 2019 American measles epidemic were seeded by travelers from Israel, then experiencing a massive measles epidemic that ultimately infected 4300 persons and caused three deaths. The Israeli epidemic, in turn, originated from travelers to Uman in central Ukraine. There. Israelis were exposed in an annual celebratory venue hosting thousands of people in contained spaces, as almost 50,000 of the faithful flock to the grave of Rabbi Nachman of Breslov, bunking in contained dorm-like quarters, engaging in the most social of conducts. The religious mania is impossible to quell: even during COVID lockdowns with the Uman mayor forbidding entry, an estimated 2,000 followers of Rabbi Nachman managed to attend.
“Coincidentally” in 2018, the Ukraine reported a massive measles epidemic; 54,000 cases were reported, reflecting their declining vaccination rate – from 95% of eligible children in 2008 to 31% in 2016, ”the lowest coverage in the WHO European Region and among the lowest in the world.”
Although measles incidence decreased markedly after 2020, that trend, attributed to COVID-related social distancing, masking, lockdowns, and a decrease in world travel, is changing. Unsurprisingly, the non-vaccination rate is now increasing, and its impact is beginning to appear. As reported by the WHO and CDC:
“2023 saw an estimated 10.3 million cases worldwide (with 107,500 deaths), a 20% increase from 2022, [with] large or disruptive measles outbreaks affect[ing] 57 countries.”
The Power of Suggestion
As we can see, vaccination has become politicized. With an upper echelon of federal health officers and officials outright fear-mongering or disparaging vaccines, we can expect more vaccine-resistant converts. Those who have always championed vaccine aversion will undoubtedly be emboldened; many on the fence will be converted. In 2018, the PEACH pamphlet featured two groups whose services included securing religious exemptions. Now that exemption is easier (and cheaper) to obtain and the wavering feeling supported by the highest level government officials, we can expect even greater numbers of unvaccinated - with dire repercussions.
Increased vaccination rates might help prevent a pandemic, but given the Ukraine situation, achieving herd immunity is unlikely. But as surely as the sun sets, the yearly pilgrimage to Uman will be celebrated this coming September with Israelis and Americans visiting and traveling back home, likely carrying measles (and perhaps COVID and polio) with them.
[1] 
With each geographic area acting as its own control, the incidence before and after anti-vax activities infected these communities has more than tripled in each of the five locations experiencing two epidemics between 2011 and 2019.
